Jose Will Do Loops in the Atlantic; Unlikely to Impact the US


Although the hurricane is expected to make a loop, recent long-term forecast models for Hurricane Jose are scattered around the map.

Downtown Miami on September 11, 2017, after it was hit by Hurricane Irma.

Forecast models agree the storm will turn toward the east coast of the United States, but longer term forecasts are less definitive. Satellite images of Jose resembled an "amorphous blob" looping in small counterclockwise motions in the Atlantic, where it would remain for the next three days, according to the National Hurricane Center. On Thursday, Sept. 14, Jose is forecast to begin heading west again, eventually moving to a point to the northeast of the Bahamas by 8 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 16.

During that time, Jose will be moving generally westward then more northward.

As a much stronger Category 4 storm, the hurricane passed only 85 miles from the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda last weekend.

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"If you hear a rumor, especially on social media, regarding what Jose may or may not do", it said in its morning discussion, check a reliable source, such as Mount Holly or the hurricane center. There is generally not a dominant weather feature that is steering the storm, so model forecasts can vary widely between each other and from run to run.

Such a path is concerning in the wake of Hurricane Irma, which has altered the beach landscape and made it more vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding.

Meanwhile, remnants of the destructive Hurricane Irma will likely be seen on the east coast as well.

What Irma did in those final critical hours before finally reaching Florida was an abject lesson in the folly of trying to predict how a hurricane hundreds of miles at sea will behave when it approaches land.