OECD Sees China Growth Holding Up Even as Risks Continue Growing


The OECD predicts U.S. growth of 2.1% this year and 2.4% in 2018, down from its previous forecast of a 2.4% increase in USA growth this year and 2.8% for 2018.

The Paris-based OECD outlined its growth forecasts in its bi-annual global economic outlook report today [see table below for United Kingdom figures].

The OECD reported that South Korea needs to pursue expansionary fiscal policies such as a supplementary budget, but should take a cautious approach to tightening mortgage loan regulations in light of the housing market situation and rising household debt.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which brings together 35 developed countries, maintained its 2018 forecast for Poland at 3.1 percent.

In 2017, India's GDP growth is expected to hit 7.3 per cent and 7.7 per cent the following year, slightly better lift than figures released by the Statistics Office last week, but largely in tandem with a World Bank report on robust growth in the country.

"Economic activity slowed in 2016 against the backdrop of a failed putsch in July and increased geopolitical tensions in the region", the organization said in its economic outlook for June 2017. "Weaker growth could push the unemployment rate above 5 per cent".

OECD chief economist Catherine Mann attributed the downgraded outlook to delays in the Trump administration pushing ahead with planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

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Lifted by improving worldwide trade in Asia and fiscal stimulus, Japanese growth was seen at 1.4 percent this year before slowing to 1.0 percent next year, both slightly raised from the OECD's March estimates of 1.2 percent and 0.8 percent respectively.

It will also help counter the build-up of other financial distortions that can accompany a sustained low-interest-rate environment.

The world economy is on the mend, according to the OECD, which released its biannual growth outlook on Wednesday.

Consumption growth will remain stable and recovering global demand will support exports.

Over Seoul's decision to deploy a US -led missile system, the Beijing government's retaliatory measures against Korean-made consumer goods and a ban on tour groups may drag down the country's GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point, as China accounts for a quarter of South Korean exports, it added.

China's GDP growth is expected to be 6.6 per cent in 2017, within the government's growth bracket, but fall to 6.4 per cent in 2018.