OPEC, non-cartel nations may extend oil cut another 6 months


In addition, OPEC and non-OPEC players plan to extend their output reductions into the second half of this year.

"If a similar picture is painted by the official data, the oil price should be able to hold its own at well above the $50 per barrel mark until the OPEC production estimates for March are released", analysts at Commerzbank said.

Leading global investment banking firm, Goldman Sachs, had warned that another downturn in global oil prices could come over the next three years, sparked by a new wave of supply stemming from mega projects that were planned years ago. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 84c, or 1.8%, to $48.57 a barrel.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers began meetings in Kuwait on Sunday to assess the impact of a milestone production cuts deal and to decide on whether to recommend they be extended. Ministers were meeting over the weekend meeting in Kuwait to review that status of an agreement reached in December 2016 to cut their combined output by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year. When the production deal was initially announced, it was suggested that exports would not fully reflect production cut implementation.

In a surprise move on Sunday, a joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries made a decision to examine the possibility of extending production cuts in the second half of 2017.

Front-month Brent crude futures rose 41 cents to $51.74 a barrel by 0929 GMT (5:29 a.m. ET).

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The investment bank also warned that the markets have become overly optimistic on oil prices since the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) deal was announced almost four months ago, adding that shale output could come in higher than expected this year, thus disappointing those expecting higher oil prices.

"We now forecast USA crude oil production to reach a multi-decade high by December, within sights of the all-time high reached in 1970", Barclays bank said in a note to clients. Boutarfa said they are "making progress in balancing the market" despite the shortcomings as he commended Iraq's "good efforts" amid the criticism directed towards it. Inventories in countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are now 282 million barrels higher than their five-year average, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at the meeting.

With oil prices marginally above $50/barrel on Monday morning, OPEC will have to tread carefully as oil market volatility persists amid stiff competition from U.S. oil producers.

He said Iraq was in full compliance with the output cut agreement. Output is lower this month because more cuts have been implemented and due to planned maintenance, industry sources say.

Russian Federation said it would reduce production by 200 Mbbl/d in the first quarter, with cuts reaching 300 Mbbl/d thereafter.

"The dynamics are positive here, I believe", Novak said, adding that inventories in the United States and other industrialised countries had risen by less than in the past.